A new survey is spelling disaster for President Joe Biden while simultaneously giving a huge boost to his most like 2024 rival, former President Donald Trump.
Ahead of what thus far appears to be a rematch of their 2020 contest, a new Harvard Harris Poll found that Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates while Biden suffers from a growing perception that he is no longer mentally fit to serve as commander-in-chief.
The poll, taken earlier this month, found that just 32 percent of respondents believe that Biden is mentally fit to serve as President, while 68 percent expressed doubts about his mental acuity.
In a Democratic contest, Biden is the favored candidate. However, if Biden decides not to run, Vice President Kamala Harris emerges as the leading contender. In the scenario where Biden intends to run, RFK Jr. follows closely behind with 16 percent. On the other hand, if Biden opts not to run, Harris takes a commanding lead at 44 percent, effectively doubling RFK’s support at 22 percent.
The results of the poll indicate that the findings could potentially have an impact on the 2024 Presidential Election. Despite Biden’s overall approval rating standing around 40 percent, the question of his mental fitness might play a decisive role for undecided voters. Poll analysts said that Democrats must proactively address these concerns if they wish to secure a second term for Biden.
Meanwhile, the 2024 Republican primary seems to lack significant competition. Trump remains the clear frontrunner, despite a slight decline in support.
Although Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis currently maintains the second position, he is steadily losing momentum to business entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. A significant 54 percent of the GOP believes that Trump will ultimately secure the nomination. However, if Trump does not become the nominee, DeSantis takes the lead with 29 percent, followed by Ramaswamy at 19 percent, and former Vice President Mike Pence at 13 percent.
In hypothetical matchups, Trump maintains a five-point lead over Biden and a nine-point lead over Harris. In direct matchups, DeSantis essentially ties both Biden and Harris, the survey found.
But, six out of ten individuals believe that Biden should not seek a second term, while almost six out of ten feel the same way about Trump.
Voters from diverse political backgrounds have shown their openness to considering a moderate independent candidate if a Biden-Trump rematch were to take place. A significant majority — 70 percent — of voters expressed the belief that the country needs “another choice” beyond the options of Biden and Trump.
Moreover, there has been a decline in the perception of the country’s direction, with fewer than 30% of people believing it is on the ‘right track.’ The view of the U.S. economy also remains pessimistic, as the perceived strength of the economy continues to be below 50 percent, showing little change since April.
Additionally, just under half of voters say that their personal financial situation is getting worse.
The survey found that the Republican primary is expected to be a contest of ideologies as candidates compete. Crucial topics like the economy, healthcare, and immigration will certainly have a major impact on the primary, analysts found. However, the candidate who can adeptly address the public’s concerns about Biden’s mental acuity may gain a strategic advantage in the race, it said.
As the 2024 election draws nearer, analysts have identified significant challenges for both parties. Democrats must work on reassuring the public about Biden’s mental fitness while staying focused on policy issues. On the other hand, Republicans face the challenge of selecting a candidate who can unite the party and offer a compelling alternative to the incumbent.